Champions Day Value: Why I'm Against Both Favorites in the Five Diamonds

Champions Day is here, and there's a race at Rosehill that's set up perfectly for value.

The Five Diamonds (Race 8) has two clear favorites - Transatlantic at $2.90 and Rise at Dawn at $6. The market loves them both. I'm against them both.

Why? Because when you've got two horses that need to be on pace, both drawn poorly, both facing more pressure than they've seen all prep, and both with distance questions - that's when the horses settling midfield with good acceleration come into the equation.

Let me break this down.

The Pace Scenario (The Foundation)

There's a shitload of pace in this race.

Look at the early speed:

• Rise at Dawn (barrier 1) - led last two starts, hasn't won past 1700m
• Transatlantic (barrier 13) - very much an on-pace horse, first time at 1800m
• Bullet Point (barrier 2) - UK import who goes forward
• Lou - forward
• Fukabana - forward
• Shadezi - can go forward

That's six horses with genuine early speed. In an 1800m race. With two of them drawn on the fence and one drawn off the track having to work across.

This is a fast race pressure scenario. The kind where horses burn up in front and the midfielders come charging late.

Why I'm Against Transatlantic ($2.90)

Transatlantic has won his last two impressively. I get why the market likes him. But there are three negatives here that people are ignoring:

1. Barrier 13 (now 12 after a scratching)

Tommy Berry's going to have to use him up early. This isn't a horse that can just settle wherever he likes. He's an on-pace horse drawn off the track in a race with genuine speed. He's going to burn petrol early just to get into position.

2. 59kg on his back

That's a genuine weight. And when you're carrying 59kg after working early from a wide barrier in a fast race pressure scenario, that weight tells late.

3. 1800m for the first time

His last two wins came at 1600m. Both times he sat outside the leader. The run before that at Caulfield - also a leader's track. He's had favors in his recent runs and he's stepping up to 1800m with more weight and a worse draw.

I think $2.90 is well under the odds. I'd have him more around $4-$4.50.

Why I'm Against Rise at Dawn ($6)

Rise at Dawn is even more vulnerable.

Barrier 1 + Race Pressure:

He's drawn the fence and led his last two starts. But he didn't win those races - finished second and third. Now he's stepping up to 1800m (hasn't won past 1700m) and facing a heap more early pressure.

When you're drawn barrier 1 and there's genuine speed around you, you've got two choices:

1. Go to the front and face sustained pressure
2. Take a sit and hope you can find cover

Neither scenario works for Rise at Dawn. He's not racing as well as he was in the autumn. The fitness is improving but the form isn't there. And the 1800m is going to see him out, especially with that early tempo.

I'd have him closer to $9-$10.

The Value Play: Militarized ($5.50)

This is the horse that opened at $8 when tips went out. He's since firmed into $5.50, but that's still tremendous value.

The Factors:

Let's go through the data:

• Class Speed Weight rating: 99 (four points ahead of the field)
• CAM: Rank 1 and 2
• Acceleration: Rank 1 (critical in this race)
• Form factors: Strong
• Race strength: Top rated

When you see a horse rank #1 in six different metrics and the market puts up $8, something's wrong with the market, not the horse.

Last Start:

Militarized ran second behind Lindamman, who's absolutely flying. The race rated really high - actually higher than Transatlantic's recent win. Militarized came from back in the field, hitting the line strongly on the fence.

The negative? He hasn't won for two years. I get that. But the ratings show he's in career-best form. The class speed weight of 99 is elite. And he's drawn barrier 11, which means he'll settle midfield to back, off the pace, and when they burn up in front, he'll be slingshotting down the middle of the track.

The Scenario:

If the favorites go slow (unlikely with all that speed), Militarized probably won't win. But if they go fast - which is what the map suggests - he's perfectly positioned. Drew 11, sits midfield, charges late with superior acceleration.

That's a $5.50 horse I'd have closer to $4.

The Other Value: Vivier ($8.50)

Vivier backed up from Saturday's Big Dance into this race - only four days between runs.

Why the quick backup works:

1. Fitness: He's fit and flying
2. Distance: Stepping up to 1800m with four-day backup often works
3. Race pressure: He'll benefit from the fast tempo

Last Start:

Ran in the Big Dance on Saturday over 1600m. You can see him in the blue cap charging down the center of the track. The tempo was only moderate - they didn't really go hard - but he still hit the line strongly.

The concern some people have is whether he can get 1800m. I think he gets it on Saturday based on:

• The fitness level
• The four-day backup keeping him sharp
• The early pace in front of him

The Factors:

• Acceleration: Elite (same as Militarized)
• Unsuitable tempo last start: They didn't go hard enough for him
• Kieran Maher: Will have this horse ready to roll

When the favorites burn up in front, Vivier will be charging through the line. At $8.50, that's value.

The Third Option: Firestorm ($13)

I've got Firestorm as fourth pick at $13.

Comes out of the Group 1 Empire Rose. The quick backup suits her, and the race pressure is perfect for a horse that settles back and runs on late.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Firestorm running into a place. At $13, there's each-way value if you want to play it that way.

Exotic Strategy: When Favourites Are Vulnerable

This is one of those races where exotic betting makes a lot of sense.

Here's the logic:

If Militarized wins (we don't know he will, but if he does), what else do we know?

We know:

• The pace was fast (otherwise he probably doesn't win)
• The horses that benefited were the ones settling back with good acceleration
• The favorites likely burned up

So if Militarized wins, there's a good chance Vivier (drawn off the track, good acceleration) and Firestorm (also settles back, benefits from pressure) are running into the places.

The Play:

Box these three in trifectas and first fours. You're playing a scenario where they all benefit from the same race shape.

Could also include horses like Bullet Point (barrier 2, will be handy) if the tempo ends up slower, but I think the main value is in the three backmarkers.

What I'm NOT doing:

I'm not boxing up Transatlantic and Rise at Dawn expecting them both to run well. If the pace is fast, they're vulnerable. If the pace is slow, then horses like Bullet Point come into it. But the favorites together in exotics? That's taking short odds on horses I think are over-rated.

The Other Race: Cavalry Man at Eagle Farm ($4.20)

I'm also fired up about Cavalry Man in Race 6 at Eagle Farm.

Last Start:

Watch the replay. Cavalry Man went three-wide no cover the entire race over 2100m. Not for half the race - the entire race. He's sitting wide at the first turn, wide through the middle stages, facing the breeze the whole way.

And he still fought on brilliantly, running second to Mr. Buster (who got a beautiful run on the fence) by only a length or so.

That was a massive run.

Saturday:

• Barrier 2: McMurray can sit him fourth on the fence
• Weight drop: 3-4kg lighter than last start
• Ideal distance: Back to 1800m
• Race pressure: Not a lot of genuine speed

He should be able to settle fourth on the fence, get an economical run, and let down late. The horse that beat him last start (Mr. Buster) looks a promising type. The formline stacks up.

The Price:

Market's got him at $4.20. I took $4.20 yesterday before Ladbrokes pushed him out. I can't believe that price.

The second favorite is Victory Flame, who Cavalry Man beat last time. Victory Flame's drawn barrier 9 this time, going to have to go back, and I just can't see him running down Cavalry Man with that weight.

Cavalry Man's also wearing pacifiers for the second time. First time he wore them (last start), he ran his highest rating ever - and it should have been even higher because the video comments (which would boost it further) aren't even factored in yet.

This horse has gone to a new level with the gear change. At $4.20, it's genuine value.

The Process: Two-Step Selection

Look, people ask me all the time: "What does value mean? Does it mean the horse is going to win?"

It means two things. Both are required.

Step 1: The factors must line up

Based on all the ratings, all the variables, the hundreds of factors in the model - the setup has to be right. Race pressure, acceleration, class, form, barriers, distance - everything has to fit.

Step 2: I must like the price

When the tips go out at 9:30am, those are the horses where I think the factors line up AND I like the price on offer at that 10am mark.

Doesn't mean jump in immediately. A lot of them drift. A lot of them get well backed. But it means that at release time, I thought the price was good value.

If you're waiting to the end and the horse is $5 into $3, and my bullet price was $4, I'd suggest staying out. The value's gone.

Why This Matters: Price is Everything

I talk about this a lot, but it's worth repeating:

The 15% Difference

Official tips at high price (best available 25 minutes out): +4% ROI

Same tips at final price (1 minute before jump): -10.5% ROI

That's a 15% difference between winning and losing.

It's not just about picking the right horse. It's about getting the right price on that horse. You need both.

In these races, I think:

• Militarized at $5.50 is great value (was $8)
• Vivier at $8.50 is good value
• Cavalry Man at $4.20 is great value

Even if these horses don't win (that's racing - no guarantees), the prices are right. Over time, if you're taking the right prices on horses with the right setups, you'll be profitable.

That's what professional punting is. Not picking winners - making money.

How to Play Saturday

Here's my approach:

Five Diamonds:

• Back: Militarized ($5.50) and Vivier ($8.50)
• Against: Transatlantic and Rise at Dawn
• Exotics: Box Militarized, Vivier, Firestorm in trifectas/first fours

Eagle Farm Race 6:

• Back: Cavalry Man ($4.20)
• Each way if you want protection

Free Pakenham Tonight:

Don't forget - tonight's Pakenham meeting is 100% free on The King Zone. Log in, get the full ratings, selections, prices. I've had a look through it and there's a few decent bets there.

Then we attack Saturday.

The Flash Sale: 30% Off (48 Hours)

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This isn't just tips. It's a starting point. Put in your own work on top of it. That's when it compounds.

Final Thoughts

Champions Day is one of the biggest days on the calendar. The fields are strong, the races are competitive, and there's genuine value if you know where to look.

The Five Diamonds sets up perfectly for value. Two favorites facing pressure they haven't seen. Two horses with superior acceleration sitting back and waiting. The factors line up. The prices are right.

Cavalry Man is the other one I'm fired up about. That last start run was massive. The draw's better. The weight's down. $4.20 is wrong.

Let's get after it.

Stay in the game. Stay in the zone.

Kingsley