Autumn Boy in the Guineas

Every punter wants to find the “overs.” But too often, the focus is on who will win—not why they’re value. That’s where most come unstuck.

This week in Max Bet Ep 11, Kingsley walked through what separates hopeful hunches from professional confidence—and it starts with Autumn Boy.

🧠 The Guineas Trap: Four Form Lines, Only One Worth Trusting

Caulfield Guineas Day throws up conflicting narratives every year. This year, punters are staring at four key form lines:

• The Golden Rose (clearly the top race)
• The Stutt Stakes
• The Guineas Prelude
• A midweek Sandown 1400m

Most punters treat these races as equal. But Kingsley’s numbers show otherwise: a 6-point rating gap between the Golden Rose and everything else. Autumn Boy comes out of the right race—and cops the wrong price.

🔍 Barrier Bias, Race Pressure & the Waller Peak

In Ep 11, Kingsley breaks down the setup:

• Barrier 1 for Autumn Boy: prime map advantage
• Race pressure predicted to be genuine, suiting horses drawn low with finish
• Waller’s Grand Final prep—this is the race he’s aimed at
• CAM score: 104 acceleration, unmatched in the field

And yet? $4.80 is available.

Meanwhile, Navy Pilot—well-backed, short-priced, but flawed—is being bet like it’s unbeatable. The data says otherwise.

🐎 Bonus Max Bet: Modella at Rosehill

Modella comes out of a Group 2, gets a fast-run 1400m, and ticks every box on the TKZ radar. Fast acceleration, top CAM, positive map setup, and rated $2.30 vs $3.30 live.

This is the type of bet Kingsley made his name on—no noise, just numbers and edge.

💡 The Takeaway: Bet Price, Not Just Picks

The real lesson? Stop thinking in winners, start thinking in edge.

Autumn Boy isn’t a “pick”—he’s a value position. Same with Modella. The prices are wrong. The model knows it. Kingsley knows it.

And now, you do too.
🧠 Stay in the game. Stay in the zone.